Adaptive Reuse...

I recently heard this news report:

http://www.marketplace.org/topics/business/filling-warehouse-space-down-economy

(text follows)

by Peter O'Dowd

Marketplace Morning Report for Tuesday, December 27, 2011

TRANSCRIPT

Adriene Hill: Looking for a place to open your business? In Phoenix, entrepreneurs have been shunning traditional retail storefronts in favor of industrial space. But city planners -- and even some landlords -- aren't nearly as enthusiastic.

Peter O'Dowd has our story.

Yoga instructor: Exhale. Good. Inhale.

Peter O'Dowd: The folks at Hegel Yoga wanted something big.

Tish Hegel: So you can let go and breathe and not feel claustrophobic.

And Tish Hegel found it here, in this warehouse in Tempe, just east Phoenix.

Hegel: When I moved over here, I doubled my square footage and my rent went down by a third.

Hegel is like a lot of other non-industrial business owners in the Phoenix area getting a deal on empty warehouses. After the financial meltdown, all sorts of industrial buildings emptied out, and rents are now more than 20 percent cheaper. Hegel had no trouble renting the space. But not every business owner is so lucky.

Rob Martenson is a broker with the real estate firm Colliers International. His cautionary tale took me to a 30,000 square foot warehouse near a suburban airport. The building went up at the height of the real estate boom.

Rob Martenson: So it's been vacant for quite a while.

O'Dowd: Was there ever a tenant in it?

Martenson: Nope.

There was plenty of interest -- mostly from non-traditional tenants like a skateboard park and a military museum. But these users needed expensive zoning adjustments and permits. In this case, the landlord didn't want to bother.

Martenson: You could spend a lot of money to improve the building. And then if that tenant goes broke, you end up losing even more money. A lot of times it's just not worth the risk.

Eventually the warehouse went into foreclosure. Sometimes, it's cities themselves that keep non-traditional tenants out of industrial buildings. Churches have moved into many warehouses, but not in the suburb of Glendale.

Jon Froke: That can be a challenge.

Jon Froke is the planning director. Zoning laws forbid churches in Glendale industrial parks.

Froke: If I'm an industrial user and I've put a million dollars on building up my business, I don't really want to be impacted if somebody next door is going to complain about noise, dust, heavy trucks.

But the city doesn't want to turn away potential tenants. Froke has helped churches looking for warehouses find space more compatible with their use.

In Phoenix, I'm Peter O'Dowd for Marketplace.

(back to me)

I'm a bit surprised but the stodginess of the planning director. Certainly he has a job to do, and his job is to act within the parameters outlined by the City Council and Planning and Zoning Commission. But he could instigate changes that would make it easier for these folks to fill up empty warehouse space.

This may become more significant as big box retail and other warehouse spaces become more common. As the market changes from medium-box to the ever more impressive biggest-box retail/warehouse, there will be additional spaces (different from, and in addition to, the speculative-built, but unfilled spaces noted above) that could/should be used. Rents in these places tend to be relatively inexpensive per square foot, making them ideal for some of the uses mentioned above - museums, churches, non-profits, and even start ups. 

There is an extremely large warehouse/distribution center located near Mont Belvieu that appears to have never been used. While it may appear desirable to have the entire space rented/utilized by just one company, it may be more economical to find alternative uses for the space - even dividing up some of the space so that clients with requirements for less space can utilize some of it.

Regardless, as we try to navigate the financial downturns and recovery, adaptive and creative use of spaces will ensure that all areas of the City remain viable, attractive, and prosperous.

Bicycling in the fast lane...

As an erstwhile cyclist (I'm no triathlete by any stretch, but I do enjoy riding my bike!), I've noticed that the lack of civility between the users of the road is an epidemic. And it goes both ways.

I recently read this article (text follows):

It'll come as no surprise to cyclists—not to mention irritated drivers—that bike riders tend to have what we might kindly refer to as selective vision when it comes to stop signs and traffic signals. Cyclists regularly run stop signs and signaled intersections when the coast is clear. Momentum is key for the bike rider, and coming to a complete stop when nobody's around is hard to justify. But even so, there's an inherent risk in not obeying traffic laws.

A recent study by Portland State students monitored intersections around campus to see how well drivers and cyclists adhered to red lights. As The Oregonian reports, the city's bike riders don't give the red light much respect.

The report is available here, and shows that of the 497 cars observed only 36 ran red lights, while 58 of the 99 bicycles observed blew right through. That's about 7 percent of cars compared to 58 percent of bicycles.
Two of the three intersections the students chose to study have a cycle track, or a bicycle lane separated from traffic lanes. The researchers found that cyclists were more likely to run red lights at the intersections with the cycle track, with about 70 percent of riders running lights compared to less than 40 percent on the shared street intersection.

“While the study probably wasn't thorough enough to be considered scientific,” student Aaron Cole said, “we thought this paper could at least lead to more discussions about safety concerns and bicycle conflicts with pedestrians on campus.”

The city has conducted limited research into red-light running among different modes of transportation. In 2006 and 2007, a PBOT study of several intersections with stop signsshowed bicyclists came to a complete stop only 7 percent of the time. It also showed that motorists stop completely only 22 percent of the time.
While it's not likely that cyclists will begin to comply fully with the laws of the road, this study does shed some more light on the potential dangers of the road. More pedestrians are put in danger when other users of the road ignore the rules. And though bike-person accidents aren't incredibly widespread, they do happen. Even more concerning should be the increasing potential of car-bike accidents that can occur when stop lights are ignored.

For those of us who ride bikes regularly, it's pretty obvious that we're not just blindly speeding through traffic lights with no regard to oncoming traffic. But there's also a danger that the more comfortable we get going green on a red, the more likely we are to relax our reflexes and de-elevate our senses to the four-wheeled threats that surround us. (Nate Berg is staff writer at The Atlantic Cities.)

(back to me)

As Eagle Drive develops over the next couple of years, after the construction cones are gone and the stripes are painted, I am sure we're going to see an increase of folks riding their bikes along Eagle Drive. My hope is that school children will return to walking to school, that families will ride for outings at the park, and that everyone will use the new sidewalks to walk and ride to many activities. All it takes is the idea that we can do it, and eventually we will all do it...

Political Involvement

I love politics.

I know how divisive things can be at times, but I love the engagement people find as they look to different politicians for guidance, for inspiration, and for leadership. It's always amazing to me to see how people rise to the occasion.

Issues vary by region and by the various and sundry issues involved. But I find it consistently impressive how people come alive to discuss the various qualities of one candidate when compared with another. There's often too much mud slinging, and that's unfortunate. I guess there's a price to be paid when you attempt to run for office - you get put under a very high-powered microscope.

I've also heard people disparage ALL of those running for office. This is disappointing to me, because we live in a representative democracy, where we are governed (at least ostensibly) by our peers. It's not perfect, and there are things that I would change if I could, but I think that it works really well, for the most part. I think that the reason it's not perfect is because people are imperfect, themselves, and therefore subject to all kinds of frailties and problems. But overall, I think it's going pretty well.

One of the biggest complaints I've heard is just that - no one hears their complaints! Well, speaking from experience in Mont Belvieu as well as in other communities - local government is where it's at. If you want to get involved, to make a real, lasting difference, and want to shape the way things go in your world, then think local. I've seen Council decisions hinge on whether or not someone spoke up for an issue - either in favor or not. Even one voice can make a difference!

So let that voice be yours.

I was at a meeting last night trying to present a point to the County Commissioners. There were questions that I was able to answer, and I did (always do!) my best to represent the people who would be directly affected by the action proposed. But what really helped was to have a couple of ladies from the neighborhood show up and speak in favor of the action. While I am a professional, and while I may have been able to give persuasive and informative presentations in the past, having the assistance of these ladies was invaluable. It gave the Commissioners a real reference to the problem, demonstrating that what I was asserting was true. And positive action was taken.

Find out what's going on in our community! Do you like what you see? Want to see more of it? Want to change it? Come on out! It's easier than you think, and very, very rewarding!

What is worth preserving?

I wrote a post several years ago about the changing nature of our world and how meaning is lost when things change without regard to the significance of place.


I am not an advocate of the "save everything" mentality. There are things that were poorly built in the past - just as there are things being poorly built now. Those things are not necessarily desirable - they may have been poorly maintained, they may be health or safety hazards, or they may be in the way of something that is more desirable, despite the loss that would occur.

But I've been a part of several communities that are in such a hurry to move forward that they forget to take time to look back at where they've been. There is much that is good in our community - including some of the historic buildings and areas - and that good is worth preserving. It not only provides diversity and richness to the tapestry that is our City, it helps inform decisions in the future and gives us a sense of connection with prior generations. And that is worth holding on to...

So how do we make that determination?

There are areas in all cities where blight or other development has changed the nature of the landscape - both literally and figuratively. Whether this was done through shortsightedness or a failure to acknowledge the importance of the city's past, it really comes to the same in the end. There is a disjointedness that is fostered, a kind of shiftless and rootless feeling that makes everything feel transitory and elusive. This is not a place to live forever, people may feel, and growth is inevitable - why fight it?

This past weekend I had the opportunity to help with the clearing/cleaning of a historic cemetery in Houston. This cemetery, largely full and almost forgotten for the past 50 years, is part of the fabric and identity of Houston. That the City (both the government and the citizens) would neglect such an important part of the collective past speaks volumes about our values. Some of the folks in this cemetery were influential people, but mostly they were just regular people. Some died young, others quite aged. But regardless of their impact, regardless of who knows their names, the City has done itself a great disservice by neglecting the history and value that is only to be found in such places. Truly, we are only as famous as the most obscure amongst us.

The good thing is that hopefully attention can be brought to bear on the situation.

Here in Mont Belvieu, we also have things of historic importance, including cemeteries, buildings, and areas that are of significance to those who have been here a while. It is important to get a sense of these things before they are gone forever. It saddens me to think of what has already been lost.

The Best City in America

I've read articles like this:

http://images.businessweek.com/slideshows/20110920/america-s-50-best-cities/

several times. While they give lots of numbers and statistics and things, what they DON'T report is often as interesting as what they do. The numbers are given in an effort to provide a modicum of objectivity to something that is entirely subjective. For example, the number 50 (of 50) city in this report, Irving, TX, has the following:

Percent with bachelor's degrees: 30.6
Percent under poverty level 15.1
Median household income: $47,269
Violent crime rate: 298.3
Property crime rate: 4,162.6
School score: 69.28
Pro sports teams: 0
Foreclosure rate: .005
Percent Unemployment: 7.7
Park acres per 1,000 residents: 9.1
Bars: 5
Restaurants: 460
Museums: 3
Colleges: 4
Libraries: 9
Air Quality Index: 109


All of which gives a fairly good picture of the city. But what's not clear is how each category is rated - does air quality mean more than good schools? Is crime rate weighted more than colleges? And why are so many of these things related to economics? Why does "Pro sports teams" make a place more desirable than not?

For reference, the number one city is Raleigh, NC, which looks like this:

Percent with bachelor's degrees: 47.5
Percent under poverty level: 13.9
Median household income: $53,370
Violent crime rate: 492.9
Property crime rate: 3,403.2
School score: 74.4
Pro sports teams: 1
Foreclosure rate: .0056
Percent Unemployment: 6.9
Park acres per 1,000 residents: 30.8
Bars: 110
Restaurants: 867
Museums: 51
Colleges: 10
Libraries: 18
Air Quality Index: 83

The article notes: Taking more than a dozen data points into account, Raleigh ranks as the best place to live in the U.S. The city sports a high number of bars, restaurants, and cultural institutions as well as a thriving social scene, great parks, and good schools. Raleigh reflects the cultural graces that go along with anchoring the so-called research triangle, home to North Carolina State University, Duke University, and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Of course, it’s also much more. The city offers a great deal on nights and weekends, from concerts and opera to the 30,000-sq.-ft. State Farmer’s Market. North Carolina’s state capital is tops in our book.

These are clearly good ways to determine if a place is desirable or not. But there are other intangible things that make a place desirable to live. These things are almost impossible to quantify and they are different for each person - what is important for me may not be of concern at all for someone else. So while I think these kinds of articles are interesting, and perhaps useful for marketing purposes, I don't put a whole lot of stock into them. The word "best" is just too loaded of a term.

Frankly, I think Mont Belvieu is the best city in America. So there!

Colorblind

I recently read this article:

http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2011/0831_census_race_frey.aspx

At some level, I wonder why we care about such things. Certainly the Census/government collecting these data hearkens back to the very foundation of our country, written into the Constitution itself. I wonder, though, if the evaluation of racial divides is an appropriate use of government time/effort.

But then I consider the reality.

I cannot help my skin color. My ancestors are a fairly mixed bag of ethnic and racial groups, but predominately represent those countries associated with northern Europe. Whatever the reason, the skin pigments they passed down to me make my skin a lighter color than others. This skin color has become associated with certain stereotypes, some of which are appropriate, some of which are not. But because of my skin color, I am afforded opportunities that others may not. Further, my daily life is affected in ways that are impossible to quantify but nevertheless very real.

As an example, I once visited a sporting goods store in the Seattle area. It was a typical mall store, with typical security/employees. I was about 16 at the time. I was looking for a hat. While standing at the display, looking for a ball cap I wanted, he clerk and security guy glanced in my direction but otherwise paid me little attention (attention I actually wanted, as I could not find the hat I wanted). Then a couple of guys came in. The only thing different about them was the color of their skin - their ancestral heritage was obviously of a different geography than mine. The clerk and the security guy stopped their conversation and came over and stood directly behind these two young men. I mean, right behind them. The young men were closely monitored until they left the shop, whereupon the clerk and the security guy went back to their previous positions near the cash register.

I was stunned at what I saw.

Two things troubled (and continue to trouble) me. The first was that because of their dark skin pigment, as opposed to my lighter skin pigment, these young men merited a different kind of treatment. The young men were wearing more expensive clothing than I was. They clearly had money and intended to use it to purchase goods available at that store. Yet their skin color singled them out - as a potential threat? - and they got treated differently because of it.

The second thing that bothered me is that the young men were so obviously accustomed to such behavior that it did not bother them. I have later learned, from my own experience in a different country where I was the minority, what it is like to be the subject of public scrutiny. It is uncomfortable, it is disruptive, and it is unfortunate. It is also very real. The attention I got, unwelcome as it was, was generally (but not universally) positive in nature. I was a missionary, which carries a fairly positive connotation anyway. Light colored skin is (for some reason I'm not familiar with) desirable and associated with beauty, while dark skin may be otherwise associated. Unfortunate, but true. So even though I experienced something like what the two young men in the above story were so obviously accustomed to, I do not really know exactly what it's like to be of darker skin color.

Dr. King said that he had a dream where people would be judged by the content of their character, not on the color of their skin. This is an amazing statement because it involves getting to know someone, coming to appreciate who they are, who they REALLY are, and not respecting outward appearances. I don't want people to judge me for the way I look. I really don't. That may be a part of the experience, but it is not who I AM. In such a world, race would not even really be a factor at all, because we would each look at each other with respect, admiration, and deference.

There ought to be a way to celebrate one's uniqueness without the baggage associate with race. I don't know how, and I'm open to suggestions. But I believe it can be done.

Until that day, when Dr. King's dream becomes a reality (and we may be closer now than we were before - but there's still a long way to go!), we should continue to find ways to break down the divides and reach common consensus on things. In this way, we are all made stronger.

Inches away...

The rule of the last inch

from Solzhenitsyn, The First Circle

Now listen to the rule of the last inch. The realm of the last inch. The job is almost finished, the goal almost attained, everything possible seems to have been achieved, every difficulty overcome - and yet the quality is just not there. The work needs more finish, perhaps further research. In that moment of weariness and self-satisfaction, the temptation is greatest to give up, not to strive for the peak of quality. That's the realm of the last inch - here the work is very, very complex but it's also particularly valuable because it's done with the most perfect means. The rule of the last inch is simply this - not to leave it undone. And not to put it off - because otherwise your mind loses touch with that realm. And not to mind how much time you spend on it, because the aim is not to finish the job quickly, but to reach perfection.

A sign of things to come?

Just read this article:

Courtesy of Centrala

In Warsaw, Poland in the district of Wola lies a small crack of space between the buildings on 22 Chłodna Street and 74 Żelazna Street. Jakub Szczęsny of Centrala, recognized the potential to create something unique within this narrow area, and derived a design of an art installation entitled Keret House. The house upon completion shall become the narrowest house in Warsaw, measuring an interior that will vary between 122 centimeters and 72 centimeters in its narrowest spot.

Architects: Centrala
Location: Wola, Poland
Designer: Jakub Szczęsny
Project Area: 14,5 sqm
Project Year: December 2011
Project Curators: Sarmen Beglarian, Sylwia Szymaniak
Project Announcement: Wola Art Festival “CityProjectWola“
Organizers: Modern Polish Art Foundation, President Piotr Nowicki, Wola District Office of the Capital City of Warsaw; Coordinator Anna Fiszer-Nowacka; Gmina Wyznaniowa Żydowska w Warszawie, Coordinator Judyta Nekanda-Trepka

Courtesy of Centrala

The house will be a workplace, a hermitage created for an outstanding Isreali writer, Etgar Keret. Besides, it will also fulfill a function of a studio for invited guests – young creators and intellectualists from all over the world.

The residential program, conducted in the heart of Wola, is supposed to produce creative work conditions and become a significant platform for world intellectual exchange.

section

Structurally the house is a simple tri-dimensional steel frame finished with plywood, insulated sandwich panels and styrofoam covered with concrete cloth painted white.

The interior will also be painted all white.
Courtesy of Centrala

The “living” will place itself on the transformable, remote control openable stairs, that flatten themselves when being in”up” position and become regular stairs when going down.

It will be equipped with boat-inspired water and sewage technology independent from city systems, the electricity will be delivered by a neighboring building.

plan

Currently the house is receiving building permits as art installation, since it doesn’t fulfill any existing Polish building codes, the building process is supposed to start in September.


Cite:
Minner , Kelly . "Keret House / Centrala" 22 Jul 2011. ArchDaily. Accessed 03 Aug 2011.

Think Big...

Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men's blood and probably themselves will not be realized. Make big plans; aim high in hope and work, remembering that a noble, logical diagram once recorded will never die, but long after we are gone will be a living thing, asserting itself with ever-growing insistency. Remember that our sons and grandsons are going to do things that would stagger us. Let your watchword be order and your beacon beauty. Think big.

Daniel Burnham, Chicago architect. (1846-1912)

Response to Paula

An earlier post generated this comment:

Paula said...
I have recently noticed that there was new construction on Eagle Drive next to Sonic. I was excited that there was the possibility of a new business or a restaurant. I was just informed that the community is to be getting another DOLLAR store. As there is already a dollar store not even a block away, I was a little surprised and more than disappointed. Can you please answer this question...when there are other needs in this community (grocery store, restaurants, etc) why and who planned the construction of another dollar store? I would appreciate a response. Thank you.

My response follows:

Hi Paula,

This is a good question and highlights some of the tension that exists with city planning, regulation, and land owner's rights, and the general interest of the population.

I have written earlier about market conditions in the City of Mont Belvieu. We are a quite unique community, experiencing a lot of growth and with great potential. However, the calculus that most businesses use to determine whether or not a particular location is quite complex. The community's desire to have any particular business is not a great factor in the overall success of the business, companies have learned. We may DESIRE all kinds of different things, but whether or not that makes business sense for a company, or whether or not they can justify the initial expense, is a matter of great concern for the company.

Many factors affect their decision, including proximity to other stores (Baytown's Garth Road, with all of the stores located there, is only 8 miles away), market saturation (there are a LOT of stores in Baytown), and - probably most important - local population. Most of the stores we would like to see, from restaurants to grocery to other things that would help our community, require a local population of about 30,000 people. We have about 4,000 in the City limits, while the area from which people could be reasonably expected to draw includes about 20,000... which is close, but not really close enough for most businesses. From conversations I've had with investors and developers, it appears that they are either waiting for Mont Belvieu to grow (in 5 or 10 years we will probably have the population in the area to support this kind of business) and/or they are looking for something that will be a regional draw - something that will bring people to the area from outside the normal shopping area, a destination store, where people would be willing to drive a long way to get there.

But ultimately, these decisions are marketing decisions. There are occasions when public/private partnerships are entered into in an effort to help bring new/desirable businesses to a community. This may be done for competitive reasons (we want them here rather than in a neighboring community) or for financial benefit (the business is a good fit, but lacks the means to get started in our community). We have not entered into any kind of agreement to support or discourage any kind of business. Thus, if any property owner on Eagle Drive wishes to build any kind of business (with a few exceptions - there are some things that are expressly prohibited on Eagle Drive) if they meet all of the applicable ordinances then the City must approve the application. A developer/owner of a particular parcel has a RIGHT to develop according to that developer's wishes, and the City really cannot do anything about it. Nor do we really want to - any/all business is good for the City: increasing tax revenue, providing jobs, offering product choice and competition. You may not like a DOLLAR store, but if they meet our ordinance we must allow it. Planning when done best provides for the greatest flexibility within limits, limits defined by the ordinance as a reflection of the City's overall goals and desires. Even the most restrictive/prescriptive communities of which I am aware must allow almost all business provided they meet the stipulations of that community's ordinance.

The choice of Family Dollar to locate in Mont Belvieu is a careful one. Family Dollars are located next to Dollar Generals all over the country and do very well. The owner of this store feels that he will do well, also, and fulfill a need in the community, or he would not even propose the investment. These kinds of stores seem to do well in communities like ours - small communities that are under-served in retail opportunities. I don't know how well Dollar General is doing, but it must be doing OK because they are still in business.

I hope that helps. I apologize for the length of the response, but I felt you deserved a complete explanation. If you would like to know more or have further questions, please stop by City Hall any time. Or you may call me at 281-576-2213 x 233. I would be happy to talk with you about this or any other aspect of planning in our community.

Housing Market...

To me, these are words that do not go well together.

I realize that people have come to view the place they live as an investment. This seems at once incongruous and discouraging. There are few more basic needs in life than the need for shelter. The drive and interest in obtaining the best housing for one's self and one's family is a universal thing, although interpreted differently in various cultures and even regions. An apartment in Shanghai or New York may be very desirable, and thus very expensive, while in our neck of the woods, a single-family detached home on a relatively large lot is desirable. I will not venture to say which is better - that is way too complicated for this kind of forum. But suffice it to note that there are differences in housing types that are desirable by different folks for different reasons, all of which are perfectly valid. Everyone needs a place to stay, to hang their hat, to call their own, to raise their families, and to just be away from others. It is a real, valid need.

Thus, to make a commodity of something so basic, so fundamental to our human condition, is a difficult thing for me to handle. The whole housing bubble thing really disturbed me for a long time - the gentrification that occurred, the debt that people incurred (kept artificially high by fraudulent banking/lending practices and excessive market conditions), and the whole "flip my house" phenomenon (which contributed to both the gentrification and high mortgage rates) really discouraged me. Everyone seemed to want to own a house NOW with little thought about how to pay for it. Banks seemed eager to lend to everyone, creating artificially low conditions and terms for procuring the loans (often giving loans to people who really couldn't afford the payments, thinking erroneously that the value of the house - as an asset - would continue to increase, and thus hedging their poor business decisions on a false premise). So when the bubble burst, and when the artificially low terms came due, well, you know the rest.

This morning I heard a report on the radio. A link to the transcript is here.

A couple of things I noted from the story: first, there is a surplus of 1.6 million homes in the market. If the median house price in the United States is $220,000 (down from a high of about $250,000 in 2007) then that means that there is close to $352 billion dollars in homes on the market that are essentially unproductive assets for some bank. That's a lot of money. Further, someone has to pay taxes on those houses. I'm not sure how that works if the government has taken over the debt (Freddie/Frannie)- do they have to pay local taxes on a foreclosed property? - but if it's bank-owned then the bank must pay. Assuming that they all must pay local taxes, and further assuming a base tax rate of 2% (which seems modest, but just to use round numbers), the entities holding the notes are paying $7.04 billion dollars a year on these vacant properties. It is even more frightening to consider that they might not have to pay these taxes.

Local municipalities may have also set great stock in the housing bubble, entering into infrastructure projects and other tax burdens in anticipation of continued growth and increased property values. When this did not materialize, many local governments are left in the uncomfortable position of having to close schools just built, or not maintaining parks that were just constructed, and leaving built and paid-for infrastructure improvements underutilized - like so many roads-to-nowhere.

Thankfully, Mont Belvieu does not find itself in that kind of position. The financial director and other City staff worked very carefully and cautiously to curtail the kind of excesses seen in other places. The City Council also is very aware of the debt we have and has ensured that we have sufficient funding sources available for unforeseen eventualities. This kind of conservative caution and fiscal policy has served us well and has made our position very stable. It's also good for me - I get to keep my job!

The second thing I noted was the idea of how long it will take to rectify the problem. 1.6 million houses means that 3.2 million more Americans can be accommodated without building any additional homes. This will not affect us much here, where the demand for housing is still relatively high. But it may serve to shift attention to the housing market our way, lowering construction costs (cheaper, more accessible materials and labor) lead not only to greater profits for builders, but also less expensive houses, which can have a negative impact on valuation. These problems are going to take a long time to sort themselves out. Further, since most of the lending institutions are national in scope, their policies reflect and react to conditions outside of our region. We've already seen a much more reluctant lending base (for good or bad) and it may continue to get exacerbated as banks remain cautious lenders.

I guess the take-home lesson in all of this is that the rest of the nation DOES have an effect on our little community. We have done things very well here, fiscally speaking, in terms of managing our debt and policies. But we do not live on an independent island and are subject to the vicissitudes of the rest of the country. Care should be taken on a personal level, as well, to make sure that our families' needs are being met.

Interesting Article

Here's a link to the original article.

The article follows:

Building New Roads Increases Traffic
Does not help congestion

Jay Blazek Crossley, Jun 06, 11.

Building new roads does not reduce congestion for metropolitan regions and can actually increase traffic, according to an upcoming report to be published in the American Economic Review, as explained in Streetsblog Capital Hill.

The report also notes that transit is not an appropriate tool for the auto-based problem of combating congestion, while congestion pricing is the “main candidate tool to curb traffic congestion.” The researchers looked mostly at building new roads and transit, but are conducting research now on the potential of the fourth major available tool for reducing congestion: smart growth.

Professors Gilles Duranton and Matthew Turner analyzed travel data from hundreds of metro areas in the US, resulting in what they call the most comprehensive dataset ever assembled on the traffic impacts of road construction. They write:

For interstate highways in metropolitan areas we find that VKT [vehicle kilometers traveled] increases one for one with interstate highways, confirming the “fundamental law of highway congestion” suggested by Anthony Downs (1962; 1992). We also uncover suggestive evidence that this law may extend beyond interstate highways to a broad class of major urban roads, a “fundamental law of road congestion”. These results suggest that increased provision of interstate highways and major urban roads is unlikely to relieve congestion of these roads.

Duranton and Turner say building more roads results in more driving for a number of reasons: People drive more when there are more roads to drive on, commercial driving and trucking increases with the number of roads, and, to a lesser extent, people migrate to areas with lots of roads. Given that new capacity just increases driving, they find that “a new lane kilometer of roadway diverts little traffic from other roads.”

...

The implications for this research are significant, especially as Congress considers whether to integrate performance measures into federal transportation spending decisions. These findings make a strong case that Congress should not allocate too many scarce resources to road expansion when that’s not a real solution for congestion.

Duranton and Turner say that metropolitan areas tend to get new roads regardless of whether or not the prevailing level of traffic warrants expansion. They urge the establishment of transportation policies based on their findings and the data they compiled, rather than the “claims of advocacy groups”:

Unfortunately, there is currently little empirical basis for accepting or rejecting the claims by the American Road and Transportation Builders Association that “adding highway capacity is key to helping to reduce traffic congestion”, or of the American Public Transit Association that without new investment in public transit, highways will become so congested that they “will no longer work”. Our results do not support either of these claims.

...

“The menu of policy responses to congestion is not really that long,” Turner said in our interview. “You’ve got building more roads, building more transit, and congestion pricing, and if you’d like you can put smart growth on there. We looked at two of those really carefully and found that they didn’t perform as advertised. So if you’re thinking about these things purely as responses to congestion, it doesn’t look like they work. There is some evidence that congestion taxes work. So if you were going to pick one of these things to go for, that would be it.”

They’re working on research now to investigate the impacts of smart growth on
traffic.


(back to me)

This is pretty interesting stuff. Of course, it makes sense - it's something that planners and transportation folks have known for a long time. Construction of new roads designed to relive congestion do not have that effect long-term. The scenario runs like this:

1. A road is built.
2. Businesses, homes, etc are built using that road as an access.
3. The businesses are successful attracting more folks.
4. These folks get there by driving, impacting the road.
5. The roadway is expanded, with resulting (short-term) decrease in congestion.
6. Eventually the cycle will reach the point where it is not feasible to expand the roadway further.
7. A new roadway is built with the goal of relieving traffic on the now fully-expanded road.
8. Return to step 1.

Roadways are EXPENSIVE. Not only to construct - our Eagle Drive improvements are just for construction and have run to costs in excess of $16 million - but to acquire right of way costs a lot of money. Particularly when people are savvy and know the project must be built. Money spent on regional transportation options in addition to local transit options is much more efficient and actually has a greater impact on roadway congestion than additional roadways do.

Maybe it's a good think TxDOT is broke...

Economic Development - Part 2

I just read the following article located here:

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2011/05/10/a-different-natural-gas-frac-trend-is-on-the-rise-for-the-gulf-coast/

The text follows:

As we’ve noted previously, the shale gas production boom is helping lift chemical industry profits and paving the way for further U.S. chemical industry expansion.

Another beneficiary of the gas production expansion is companies that process natural gas, which is often called fractionation.

Natural gas usually needs to have impurities removed from it before shortly after it is produced from wells and can be moved via pipeline. This includes natural gas liquids such as propane, butane, pentane, hexane and heptane — which can be very valuable products themselves.

Since many of the shale gas formations that are being tapped are particularly “wet” with NGLs, that means there’s a need for more processing capacity.

Enterprise Products Partners said Monday it will expand its Mont Belvieu, Texas, fractionation capacity by about 7,500 barrels per day, with plans to have the facilities online by early 2013.

DCP Partners and Targa Resources also have plans for an added 100,000 barrels per day in capacity at Mont Belvieu.

These projects and others announced in the past week alone will increase capacity in Mont Belvieu by 32 percent, the folks at Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. say in a research note today. That’s on top of the 14 percent expansion already underway.

All told, Mont Belvieu could go from 860,000 barrels per day capacity to 1,253,000 barrels per day by 2013. Now, what does that mean for NGL prices?

“After a decade of flat NGL production, it will be hard to absorb that capacity increase without reverberations,” TPH notes.

That’s a nice way of saying they’re gonna go down.

(What that means for us is that while we're expanding by 50%, the value of what is being produced is going to go down. Ultimately this does a couple of things for us - it increases our tax base by about 1.2 Billion (!) dollars, while ensuring that the industry stays in the area. It increases our work force opportunities, which is good. It also makes Mont Belvieu the leading location for this kind of facility - storage and fractionation - anywhere. And that's pretty cool.)

Economic Development

Or, when is Wal-Mart coming to Mont Belvieu...

There has been a lot of interest in getting a Wal-Mart (Kroger, HEB, Texas Roadhouse, Home Depot, whatever) out here in our fair City. I get questioned a lot about it.

Here's the thing about economic development - especially, retail/restaurant development. The decisions that are made about where to locate a store have really very little to do with the efforts of the local municipality. Sure, they like things like roads, traffic lights, access to freeway, etc. But when you get right down to it, these things are market decisions made by people who are ALWAYS looking for places to expand. They're cautious, and they're careful, but they want to expand just as much as we want them to.

If what the municipality does seems to not make much of a difference, what ARE retail establishments interested in?

First, they are looking for population. The average big box is 150,000 square feet (!). That represents a huge investment for the company. But even more than that, they do not like to consider getting into a market only to have the store fail. It just looks bad for the company overall. The base number that I've heard is 30,000 people, or about 10,000 households. The Census numbers that just came out puts the population for the entire County at right around 35,000. This means that the entire County would have to live within striking distance of the proposed retail establishment. Studies also show that people will drive about 20 minutes to get to a store, unless it's a destination type store (a specialty store, for example). That encompasses about everything from Anahuac on the east to Garth Road on the west. Everyone knows what's on Garth Road, so that's a bit of a problem...

Next, they are looking for proximity to additional services of the same nature. This means not only competing stores, but even stores of the same kind - a Home Depot does not want to locate too close to another Home Depot, for example. I heard further that a place might not want to come out to an area because of saturation with one particular brand or another - Costco would not want to locate where there are many Wal-Marts/Sam's Clubs because the market already recognizes those brands, not Costco...

Retail establishments also look for where development is happening. Mont Belvieu and west Chambers County has experienced substantial growth in the past few decades, but the numbers, while impressive, are misleading. A population of 200 could double in one year to 400 with the addition of just 70 homes. That would seem like a lot, particularly compared with what the community's size was initially. But when a company is looking for 10,000 homes, the addition of 70 homes is not a big impact.

So what is the City doing to promote itself and appropriate growth? Don't we want the area to grow, also?

Yes, we do. We are doing a lot to help foster an appropriate environment for growth. Many of the City's infrastructure projects are at least indirectly aimed at getting people to take notice of the City. Particularly, the new water tower and associated water well, the sewer line improvements, and Eagle Drive expansion are all things that will impress future and potential prospects. The City has also recently authorized close to $2 million for a regional detention areas, which will allow better and more efficient use of land for development of all kinds. These things represent around $25 million in investment by the City in handling anticipated growth.

The new City Park, while not directly impacting businesses, per se, also demonstrates the City's interest in creating a positive community image. This attracts developments of all kinds, residential, commercial, and industrial. It also encourages people from around the area and region to come see what is going on out here.

The City Council also recently authorized a study of demographic trends in the City with a heavy emphasis on attracting new development to the City. This report will demonstrate which retail establishments are a good fit for our community and how to best contact these companies to promote our City. The results of this report should be out very soon.

Finally, we are seeking to create an atmosphere where all businesses, both those who've already invested so much in our community, as well as those who are seeking to locate here, can succeed. This can be done in many ways, including appropriate aesthetic regulation, zoning and subdivision ordinances, and other infrastructure improvements. As we work to create an environment where businesses can thrive within appropriate guidelines, the community will continue to develop and attract high-quality businesses that are here for the long term.

So, to answer my own question, I don't know when/if Wal-Mart (Kroger, HEB, whatever) will be coming to town. I'll be sure to let you know when I do!

Thanks, Mr. Tinsley, for the exposure! Glad you found the blog and that it's helpful!

At least I'm not in the obituaries... or the police beat... HA!

http://baytownsun.com/communities/mont_belvieu/article_677b1432-4f78-11e0-9cde-001cc4c002e0.html

PS - I'm not sure where he lifted that old, low resolution picture. I wish he'd asked me for a more recent, better resolution one. Ah, well.

Here's the text I could get...

Posted: Wednesday, March 16, 2011 12:00 am

Is Mont Belvieu the new hub of Chambers?

By BEN TINSLEY Baytown Sun

MONT BELVIEU – If initial 2010 census figures are any indication, at least one out of every 10 Chambers County people lives in Mont Belvieu right now, an official asserts.

Numbers recently released by the 2010 U.S. Census paint a fascinating portrait of potential growth in Mont Belvieu, City Planner Bill Cobabe wrote in a recent blog post.

(UPDATE: Here's a scan of the article from today's paper)

Census Data

Here's some interesting data that have just come in from the Census Bureau:

Mont Belvieu city
Total population
2010: 3,835
2000: 2,324
Change from 2000 to 2010: 65.0%
1990: 1,323
Hispanic
2010: 478
2000: 151
Change from 2000 to 2010: 216.6%
White (alone, not Hispanic)
2010: 3,153
2000: 2,027
Change from 2000 to 2010: 55.6%
Black or African American (alone, not Hispanic)
2010: 101
2000: 98
Change from 2000 to 2010: 3.1%
Asian (alone, not Hispanic)
2010: 22
2000: 10
Change from 2000 to 2010: 120.0%
American Indian and Alaska Native (alone, not Hispanic)
2010: 30
2000: 13
Change from 2000 to 2010: 130.8%
Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Island (alone, not Hispanic)
2010: 5
2000: 0
Change from 2000 to 2010:
Some other race (alone, not Hispanic)
2010: 0
2000: 0
Change from 2000 to 2010:
Two or more races (alone, not Hispanic)
2010: 46
2000: 25
Change from 2000 to 2010: 84.0%
Vacant housing units
Total housing units: 1,426
Vacant housing units: 119
Vacancy rate: 8.3%
Age 18 and over
2010: 2,677
2000: 1,592
Change from 2000 to 2010: 68.2%
1990: 939

Chambers County

Total population
2010: 35,096
2000: 26,031
Change from 2000 to 2010: 34.8%
1990: 20,088
Hispanic
2010: 6,635
2000: 2,810
Change from 2000 to 2010: 136.1%
White (alone, not Hispanic)
2010: 24,767
2000: 20,210
Change from 2000 to 2010: 22.5%
Black or African American (alone, not Hispanic)
2010: 2,817
2000: 2,525
Change from 2000 to 2010: 11.6%
Asian (alone, not Hispanic)
2010: 326
2000: 172
Change from 2000 to 2010: 89.5%
American Indian and Alaska Native (alone, not Hispanic)
2010: 134
2000: 84
Change from 2000 to 2010: 59.5%
Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Island (alone, not Hispanic)
2010: 13
2000: 0
Change from 2000 to 2010:
Some other race (alone, not Hispanic)
2010: 25
2000: 25
Change from 2000 to 2010: 0.0%
Two or more races (alone, not Hispanic)
2010: 379
2000: 205
Change from 2000 to 2010: 84.9%
Vacant housing units
Total housing units: 13,291
Vacant housing units: 1,339
Vacancy rate: 10.1%
Age 18 and over
2010: 25,085
2000: 18,507
Change from 2000 to 2010: 35.5%
1990: 14,113
This provides some interesting insights:

More than 1 out of every 10 people in the County lives in the City.
Mont Belvieu's growth rate doubled that of the County and was the highest of anywhere in the County.
If the growth continues like it could, we should see the population double in the next ten years.
The vacancy rates they have for the City seem a little high. Perhaps the numbers were taken when the apartments were just constructed and not full yet. But I just don't see many homes that are vacant...

These are some pretty strong indicators. Remember that this information is current as of last April, and based on our interpolated growth rate of about 7%, the numbers are already out of date. Assuming that rate continued for the past year also, it seems that we are looking at 4100 people. Further, assuming a household size of 2.9 (which is the population divided by the number of occupied housing units) and then assuming that 1/2 of the units that were vacant then (119) are now filled, that adds an additional 180 people or so, which puts us at nearly 4300.

More information will be forthcoming, of course. But this is fun for people like me who like to look at these kinds of things.

It's nice to see one's name in the newspaper, particularly outside of the obituaries or police beat sections... LOL!

PS - the party was a blast! It was fun to see such a great turn out... The Park is now open so go and enjoy! Hope to see you there!